Focus on corporate and macro fundamentals

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Although we do not have any guarantee, the precision of the polling agencies in the first round of the French election gives comfort for the outcome of the second round. Markets can now focus again on the strong economic and corporate fundamentals. We take a look at the prospects for the different asset classes, assuming Emmanuel Macron will become President on 7 May.

The base case of a run-off between Macron and Le Pen was confirmed and almost perfectly predicted by the polls. This clearly increases our confidence in the pollsters, which was scattered after Brexit and the US election. In the second round, Macron has a big margin in his favour and hence he is most likely the next French President. An additional point of comfort is that Macron already came out ahead of Le Pen in the first round and that the losing mainstream parties have advised to vote for Macron.

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