Weekly economic commentary

My timing in life is terrible. When I book a flight, cumulus clouds immediately begin plotting to cover the destination on the appointed day. When I plan a special menu for a dinner party, the supermarket runs out of a key ingredient. And when I offer a benign economic outlook, the likelihood of an unexpected shock to the global financial system rises significantly.

Nevertheless, I was hopeful that the timing and tone would be ideal for my trip to Western Canada last month. The White House rhetoric on trade was cooling, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had held an encouraging meeting with President Trump early in the year. Most of the international anxiety in the past month has centered on North Korea, and most of the continental focus has been on relations between the United States and Mexico.