US retail sales fall, UK Prime Minister defeated again and Spain to head back to the polls

The US ended last week with a bang. Retail sales posted their biggest drop in nearly a decade, while other data, delayed by the shutdown, were also released. Atlanta Fed GDP tracker’s estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018 plunged from 2.6% (before the data was released) to 1.5%. We adjust our own outlook in a similarly sharp fashion, to 1.2% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from 2.4% previously. The US government avoided a repeat shutdown on Friday, with Congress passing a compromise bill, providing $1.4bn of funding for border “barriers”.