Demand remains strong and spreads reversed somewhat in early 2019

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US real estate investors are entering year four of a period of relative calm, income-driven performance. Demand is strong. Supply should be monitored closely. Capital flows are supportive but not excessive, even as spreads show signs of easing.

Private commercial real estate continues to produce steady returns, in line with long-term expectations, even though there are some differences across major property types, see exhibit 1. For long-horizon real estate investors, this outcome was expected. After all, rent growth is positive. Expectations are
for continued growth at a diminished rate compared
to recent performance.

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