Mounting Political Risks In Emerging Markets

In addition to renewed trade tensions between the US and China, political tensions, especially in Asia, have risen – China vs. Hong Kong, Japan vs. South Korea, India vs. Kashmir – triggering a rise in risk aversion for emerging assets. The results of primary-round elections last weekend in Argentina also came as a negative surprise and could put the bail-out from the IMF at risk. The political situation in Argentina has nevertheless a limited regional spillover risk. As a result, equity markets have declined by around 8% since July while emerging debt spreads have started to widen and emerging currencies have globally weakened.