Economic and Strategy Viewpoint September 2019

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We are downgrading our forecasts for global growth as a consequence of the recent escalation of the trade wars between the US and China. We now expect 2.6% GDP growth this year and 2.4% next (previously 2.8% and 2.6% respectively). If the forecast is realised, global growth in 2020 would be similar to 2008, just before the great recession of 2009.

Interest rates are expected to fall faster and further around the globe, but we expect the lags from easier policy to stronger growth to be long as cautious banks and borrowers take time to respond. Both geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty are high and will not be shifted by a lower cost of credit.

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