Asset Allocation Navigator: Fourth quarter 2019

Central banks cutting interest rates helps, but can’t fully offset the drag on growth from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. The ‘skinny’ trade deal between the US and China suspends a planned tariff increase in mid-October, but uncertainty remains over tariffs in mid-December. Political noise is rising with the impeachment investigation against President Trump and civil unrest in Hong Kong, as well as on-going tensions in the Middle East. And the Brexit saga continues to weigh on the outlook for Europe as well as the UK. • 2019 has been a year of surprises; it is unlikely to end with a whimper.