Long-term perspective on markets and economies

Policy and trade uncertainty are weighing on growth. Catalysts for change could come in the form of a resolution in US-China trade talks and an improvement in manufacturing activity, giving rise to cautious optimism. Central banks go lower for longer. But the impact won’t be felt until early 2020. Whether interest rate cuts are enough to offset the negative impact of higher tariffs and slower growth remains to be seen. Recession in 2020? It will depend on the consumer. In the US, it’s a tale of two economies: Consumer strength should continue to offset the manufacturing slowdown caused by trade and policy uncertainty