In our base case, the global economy is poised to improve in 2020 and the outperformance gap between the United States (the US) and other developed market economies is likely to shrink. After all, December 2019 brought to fruition the US–Mexico–Canada Agreement, the phase 1 US-China trade deal, a US budget agreement and a clear mandate by the British electorate to follow through on Brexit. Consequently, we expect global growth to reach 3.5% barring additional geopolitical shocks. We see interest rates remaining low and inflation being contained but moving a bit higher globally.
- Other research | Roaring Into Recession
- Amundi Asset Managers | Credit Risk Sensitivity to Carbon Price
- AXA Investment Managers | Coronavirus: How ESG scores signalled resilience in the Q1 market downturn
- Capital Group | Guide to recessions: When is the next U.S. recession and how should you prepare for it?
- Columbia Threadneedle | In Credit: What goes up must come down.
- MFS Investment Management | How Shall Europe Hang?
- Robeco | Navigating the two-way risk in equities
- Nuveen | Treasury yields decline modestly in a relatively calm week
- BlackRock/iShares | Weekly Commentary: Upgrading Credit
- Edmond de Rothschild | Market Flash: Investors Remain Torn Between Hopes And Worries