Recession 2020— Deep but Short

I’m anticipating a contraction in economic activity over the first two quarters of 2020 that roughly matches the longer decline over the financial crisis. When shuttered industries and shut‑in workers can start the transition back to normal life—probably sometime in May—growth should resume. Solid pre‑virus underpinnings in the business and household sectors and the unprecedented policy response should help short‑circuit a prolonged recession.