Examining the Global Outlook and Long-Term Disruptors

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China recently introduced its new “dual circulation” economic development model, which seeks to reduce reliance on exports and foreign technology, strengthen domestic supply chains, and look to the domestic market as the main driver of China’s growth. In the U.S., the longer-term outlook is for a high level of fiscal activity under any outcome of the November elections, but especially in the case of a Democratic sweep. In monetary policy, the Federal Reserve recently announced two changes to its policy framework: a flexible average inflation targeting approach, in which shortfalls from the inflation target will be made up by overshoots; and a commitment not to tighten policy because of low unemployment alone – inflation or other risks would need to be present as well.

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