Macroeconomic Outlook 2020: Fragile 20-20 vision

Fears of a 2019 global recession have abated as major macro risks have started fading. However, for 2020 we think actual GDP growth is unlikely to be able to exceed potential in the key economic regions. Too much damage has been done, old headwinds are still with us and new sources of uncertainty have emerged. Our baseline for 2021 is that global growth slows down to quasi-stagnation. A lack of policy fire-power will be a dominant theme in the coming two years.