In the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic

At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, firstquarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even though it had hardly begun by the end of the quarter. It is therefore a safe bet that results will be even worse in the second quarter but also that they will bottom out for the year. Even so, the consensus still looks far off the mark for both second-quarter results and for 2020-2021. Consequently, the positive impact from reopening the economy already appears to be priced in by far.